Prelims1
Welterweight
TJ Waldburger vs Nick Catone
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
·Hard Rock Hotel and Casino
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
TJ Waldburger
Nick Catone
71%
29%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
25
Age
Δ 7y
31
16-10
Career record
Δ 5 pp
10-5
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Waldburger: 13 sig / 1 TD ·
Catone: 10 sig / 1 TD
TJ Waldburger
Nick Catone
23
Sig strikes landed
15
49
Sig strikes attempted
36
36
Total strikes landed
39
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
170s
Control time
185s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
TJ Waldburger
16-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
Blue corner
L1
Nick Catone
"The Jersey Devil"
10-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—