Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dennis Siver
Nam Phan
68%
32%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
24-11
Career record
Δ 12 pp
22-17
W1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Siver: 128 sig / 2 TD ·
Phan: 24 sig / 0 TD
Dennis Siver
Nam Phan
106
Sig strikes landed
71
247
Sig strikes attempted
187
122
Total strikes landed
85
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
141s
Control time
4s
Method
Decision
82%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dennis Siver
24-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
Blue corner
W1
Nam Phan
22-17
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—