Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mike Swick
Matt Brown
60%
40%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
16-6
Career record
Δ 14 pp
27-19
W1
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Swick: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Brown: 25 sig / 1 TD
Mike Swick
Matt Brown
16
Sig strikes landed
33
60
Sig strikes attempted
69
31
Total strikes landed
47
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
111s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mike Swick
"Quick"
16-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
W3
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
27-19
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—