Prelims1
Lightweight
Yves Edwards vs Jeremy Stephens
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yves Edwards
Jeremy Stephens
76%
24%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
36
Age
Δ 10y
26
42-23-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
29-24
L1
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Edwards: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Stephens: 5 sig / 0 TD
Yves Edwards
Jeremy Stephens
37
Sig strikes landed
42
96
Sig strikes attempted
99
49
Total strikes landed
50
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
101s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Yves Edwards
42-23-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
Blue corner
L2
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29-24
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—