Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
BJ Penn
Rory MacDonald
14%
86%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
34
Age
Δ 11y
23
16-15-2
Career record
Δ 35 pp
20-4
L1
Current streak
W3
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Penn: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
MacDonald: 116 sig / 1 TD
BJ Penn
Rory MacDonald
33
Sig strikes landed
64
93
Sig strikes attempted
125
53
Total strikes landed
85
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.2
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
72s
Control time
217s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
BJ Penn
"The Prodigy"
16-15-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 1-3
Last 5
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
D
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
L
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
W3
Rory MacDonald
"Red King"
20-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—