Main
Light Heavyweight
Mauricio Rua vs Alexander Gustafsson
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mauricio Rua
Alexander Gustafsson
60%
40%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
79"
31
Age
Δ 5y
26
28-14-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
19-8
W1
Current streak
W5
5
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rua: 41 sig / 1 TD ·
Gustafsson: 72 sig / 6 TD
Mauricio Rua
Alexander Gustafsson
38
Sig strikes landed
44
79
Sig strikes attempted
100
53
Total strikes landed
55
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
105s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mauricio Rua
"Shogun"
28-14-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
W5
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
19-8
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—