🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Benson Henderson vs Nate Diaz
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Benson Henderson
Nate Diaz
78%
22%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
29
Age
Δ 2y
28
25-7
Career record
Δ 14 pp
23-13
W5
Current streak
W3
5
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Henderson: 124 sig / 8 TD ·
Diaz: 30 sig / 0 TD
Benson Henderson
Nate Diaz
79
Sig strikes landed
62
196
Sig strikes attempted
158
99
Total strikes landed
93
2.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.8
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
274s
Control time
36s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Benson Henderson
"Smooth"
25-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
Blue corner
W3
Nate Diaz
23-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
L
UFC 125: Resolution
—