Prelims1
Bantamweight
Raphael Assuncao vs Mike Easton
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Raphael Assuncao
Mike Easton
75%
25%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
30
Age
Δ 2y
29
29-10
Career record
Δ 4 pp
14-6
W2
Current streak
W3
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Assuncao: 57 sig / 0 TD ·
Easton: 30 sig / 0 TD
Raphael Assuncao
Mike Easton
38
Sig strikes landed
37
101
Sig strikes attempted
109
52
Total strikes landed
55
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
102s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Raphael Assuncao
29-10
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W3
Mike Easton
"The Hulk"
14-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—