Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Takeya Mizugaki
Jeff Hougland
82%
18%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
29
Age
Δ 5y
34
21-12-2
Career record
Δ 1 pp
10-7
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mizugaki: 63 sig / 4 TD ·
Hougland: 14 sig / 1 TD
Takeya Mizugaki
Jeff Hougland
45
Sig strikes landed
35
106
Sig strikes attempted
83
66
Total strikes landed
48
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.2
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
276s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Takeya Mizugaki
21-12-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
Blue corner
L1
Jeff Hougland
"Hellbound"
10-7
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—