Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Zhang Tiequan
Jon Tuck
62%
38%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
34
Age
Δ 6y
28
L2
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tiequan: 40 sig / 2 TD ·
Tuck: 36 sig / 0 TD
Zhang Tiequan
Jon Tuck
33
Sig strikes landed
40
57
Sig strikes attempted
77
45
Total strikes landed
53
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
147s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Zhang Tiequan
"The Wolf"
15-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
Blue corner
Jon Tuck
"Super Saiyan"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28