Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Alex Caceres
Motonobu Tezuka
38%
62%
Why
24
Age
Δ 1y
25
W1
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Caceres: 64 sig / 0 TD ·
Tezuka: 22 sig / 2 TD
Alex Caceres
Motonobu Tezuka
34
Sig strikes landed
31
71
Sig strikes attempted
65
49
Total strikes landed
52
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
124s
Control time
176s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
22-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
Blue corner
Motonobu Tezuka
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25