Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dong Hyun Kim
Paulo Thiago
79%
21%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
22-5-1
Career record
Δ 14 pp
18-10
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kim: 22 sig / 3 TD ·
Thiago: 2 sig / 0 TD
Dong Hyun Kim
Paulo Thiago
26
Sig strikes landed
15
46
Sig strikes attempted
40
54
Total strikes landed
32
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
232s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dong Hyun Kim
"Stun Gun"
22-5-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
Blue corner
L1
Paulo Thiago
18-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—