Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Thiago Silva
Stanislav Nedkov
62%
38%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
19-7
Career record
Δ 14 pp
13-2
L2
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 3
Silva: 62 sig / 1 TD ·
Nedkov: 18 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Silva
Stanislav Nedkov
33
Sig strikes landed
43
81
Sig strikes attempted
88
34
Total strikes landed
49
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
44s
Control time
37s
Method
Decision
15%
KO/TKO
80%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Thiago Silva
19-7
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
W1
Stanislav Nedkov
"Stucky"
13-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—