Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rich Franklin
Cung Le
93%
7%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
38
Age
Δ 2y
40
30-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
10-3
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Franklin: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Le: 8 sig / 0 TD
Rich Franklin
Cung Le
60
Sig strikes landed
45
150
Sig strikes attempted
112
75
Total strikes landed
47
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
93s
Control time
9s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rich Franklin
"Ace"
30-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
L
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
Blue corner
W1
Cung Le
10-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
41
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—