Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Sergio Moraes
Renee Forte
59%
41%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
30
Age
Δ 5y
26
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Moraes: 16 sig / 4 TD ·
Forte: 26 sig / 0 TD
Sergio Moraes
Renee Forte
38
Sig strikes landed
33
75
Sig strikes attempted
69
48
Total strikes landed
52
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
88s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Sergio Moraes
"The Panther"
14-7-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner
Renee Forte
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26