Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Diego Brandao
Joey Gambino
70%
30%
Why
25
Age
Δ 1y
24
22-12
Career record
Δ 10 pp
9-3
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brandao: 33 sig / 3 TD ·
Gambino: 39 sig / 0 TD
Diego Brandao
Joey Gambino
33
Sig strikes landed
17
64
Sig strikes attempted
45
57
Total strikes landed
37
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
153s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Diego Brandao
"DB"
22-12
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
L1
Joey Gambino
"The Raging Warrior"
9-3
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—