Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gleison Tibau
Francisco Trinaldo
68%
32%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
29
Age
Δ 5y
34
33-15
Career record
Δ 8 pp
29-9
L1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tibau: 36 sig / 5 TD ·
Trinaldo: 45 sig / 0 TD
Gleison Tibau
Francisco Trinaldo
23
Sig strikes landed
28
66
Sig strikes attempted
59
45
Total strikes landed
42
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.7
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
150s
Control time
283s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gleison Tibau
33-15
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
Blue corner
W1
Francisco Trinaldo
"Massaranduba"
29-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—