Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Rick Story
66%
34%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
35
Age
Δ 7y
28
29-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
20-9
W1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Maia: 5 sig / 3 TD ·
Story: 3 sig / 0 TD
Demian Maia
Rick Story
33
Sig strikes landed
41
90
Sig strikes attempted
100
54
Total strikes landed
64
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
5.5
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
176s
Control time
165s
Method
Decision
79%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Demian Maia
29-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
Blue corner
W1
Rick Story
"The Horror"
20-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—