Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Phil Davis
Wagner Prado
66%
34%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
17-4
Career record
Δ 1 pp
12-3
L1
Current streak
—
7
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Davis: 29 sig / 5 TD ·
Prado: 2 sig / 0 TD
Phil Davis
Wagner Prado
44
Sig strikes landed
34
96
Sig strikes attempted
75
69
Total strikes landed
48
2.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
6.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
285s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Phil Davis
"Mr. Wonderful"
17-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
Wagner Prado
"Caldeirao"
12-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-0