Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Rony Jason
Sam Sicilia
57%
43%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 6"
67"
29
Age
Δ 2y
27
15-7
Career record
Δ 2 pp
16-8
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Jason: 46 sig / 1 TD ·
Sicilia: 39 sig / 1 TD
Rony Jason
Sam Sicilia
36
Sig strikes landed
34
77
Sig strikes attempted
79
46
Total strikes landed
47
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
122s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rony Jason
15-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Sam Sicilia
16-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—