Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Fitch
Erick Silva
79%
21%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
35
Age
Δ 6y
28
30-8-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
20-9
L1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Fitch: 82 sig / 6 TD ·
Silva: 19 sig / 2 TD
Jon Fitch
Erick Silva
24
Sig strikes landed
20
46
Sig strikes attempted
39
59
Total strikes landed
36
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
233s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jon Fitch
30-8-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 4
L
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
D
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
W1
Erick Silva
20-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
L
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—