Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Glover Teixeira
Fabio Maldonado
78%
22%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
34-9
Career record
Δ 13 pp
23-12
W1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Teixeira: 85 sig / 3 TD ·
Maldonado: 10 sig / 0 TD
Glover Teixeira
Fabio Maldonado
44
Sig strikes landed
39
92
Sig strikes attempted
63
60
Total strikes landed
65
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.7
5.4
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
159s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Glover Teixeira
34-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
Blue corner
L2
Fabio Maldonado
"Caipira de Aco"
23-12
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—