Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Dave Herman
63%
37%
Why
77"
Reach
77"
36
Age
Δ 8y
28
34-11-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
22-7
L1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Nogueira: 20 sig / 1 TD ·
Herman: 13 sig / 2 TD
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Dave Herman
19
Sig strikes landed
34
37
Sig strikes attempted
66
41
Total strikes landed
45
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.4
Takedowns attempted
0.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
111s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
"Minotauro"
34-11-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
L2
Dave Herman
22-7
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—