Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anderson Silva
Stephan Bonnar
85%
15%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
79"
38
Age
Δ 2y
36
35-11
Career record
Δ 12 pp
16-9
W5
Current streak
W3
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Silva: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Bonnar: 12 sig / 0 TD
Anderson Silva
Stephan Bonnar
33
Sig strikes landed
29
66
Sig strikes attempted
74
40
Total strikes landed
50
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
0.2
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
11s
Control time
200s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Anderson Silva
"The Spider"
35-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
W3
Stephan Bonnar
"The American Psycho"
16-9
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
L
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—