Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Aaron Simpson
Mike Pierce
40%
60%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
38
Age
Δ 6y
32
13-5
Career record
Δ 0 pp
18-7
W1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Simpson: 28 sig / 1 TD ·
Pierce: 10 sig / 0 TD
Aaron Simpson
Mike Pierce
44
Sig strikes landed
37
91
Sig strikes attempted
78
66
Total strikes landed
57
1.6
Takedowns landed
2.1
4.4
Takedowns attempted
5.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
167s
Control time
211s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Aaron Simpson
"A-Train"
13-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
Blue corner
W1
Mike Pierce
18-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—