Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Michael Johnson
Danny Castillo
60%
40%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
26
Age
Δ 7y
33
26-20
Career record
Δ 8 pp
18-10
W2
Current streak
W3
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Johnson: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Castillo: 17 sig / 0 TD
Michael Johnson
Danny Castillo
40
Sig strikes landed
36
96
Sig strikes attempted
87
54
Total strikes landed
56
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.4
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
49s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
26-20
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
Blue corner
W3
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
18-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—