Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marcus LeVesseur
Carlo Prater
67%
33%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
22-8
Career record
Δ 13 pp
31-19-1
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
LeVesseur: 53 sig / 3 TD ·
Prater: 42 sig / 0 TD
Marcus LeVesseur
Carlo Prater
20
Sig strikes landed
24
31
Sig strikes attempted
50
37
Total strikes landed
44
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
176s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Marcus LeVesseur
"The Prospect"
22-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
Blue corner
L1
Carlo Prater
"Neo"
31-19-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—