Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bart Palaszewski
Diego Nunes
75%
25%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
29
Age
Δ 0y
30
36-18
Career record
Δ 4 pp
19-8
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Palaszewski: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Nunes: 61 sig / 3 TD
Bart Palaszewski
Diego Nunes
37
Sig strikes landed
39
94
Sig strikes attempted
100
50
Total strikes landed
51
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
52s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Bart Palaszewski
"Bartimus"
36-18
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1
Diego Nunes
"The Gun"
19-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—