Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jacob Volkmann
Shane Roller
76%
24%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33
19-8
Career record
Δ 7 pp
12-7
L1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Volkmann: 8 sig / 1 TD ·
Roller: 0 sig / 0 TD
Jacob Volkmann
Shane Roller
27
Sig strikes landed
14
60
Sig strikes attempted
49
54
Total strikes landed
31
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.0
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
255s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jacob Volkmann
"Christmas"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
Blue corner
W1
Shane Roller
12-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—