Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
John Dodson
Jussier Formiga
45%
55%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Dodson: 33 sig / 0 TD ·
Formiga: 9 sig / 0 TD
John Dodson
Jussier Formiga
44
Sig strikes landed
41
114
Sig strikes attempted
104
55
Total strikes landed
46
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.60
Knockdowns
0.20
61s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
John Dodson
"The Magician"
23-12
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
Jussier Formiga
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28