Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Neer
Justin Edwards
87%
13%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
36-17-1
Career record
Δ 7 pp
9-6
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Neer: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Edwards: 6 sig / 0 TD
Josh Neer
Justin Edwards
42
Sig strikes landed
31
78
Sig strikes attempted
67
59
Total strikes landed
48
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.9
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
103s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Josh Neer
"The Dentist"
36-17-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
Blue corner
L1
Justin Edwards
"Fast Eddy"
9-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—