Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Ellenberger
Jay Hieron
69%
31%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
28
Age
Δ 9y
36
L1
Current streak
—
7
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ellenberger: 25 sig / 2 TD ·
Hieron: 32 sig / 0 TD
Jake Ellenberger
Jay Hieron
33
Sig strikes landed
24
71
Sig strikes attempted
59
48
Total strikes landed
40
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
166s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31-16
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
Jay Hieron
"The Thoroughbred"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36