Back to UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson
Prelims1 Lightweight

Brendan Loughnane vs Mike Wilkinson

UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson ·Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Brendan Loughnane
Mike Wilkinson
79% 21%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
23
Age
Δ 2y
25

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Loughnane: 75 sig / 0 TD · Wilkinson: 54 sig / 1 TD
Brendan Loughnane
Mike Wilkinson
43
Sig strikes landed
31
86
Sig strikes attempted
65
61
Total strikes landed
43
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
158s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Brendan Loughnane

0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
23
Blue corner

Mike Wilkinson

"The Warrior"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25