Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Nick Penner vs Cody Donovan
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson
·Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nick Penner
Cody Donovan
67%
33%
Why
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Penner: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Donovan: 19 sig / 1 TD
Nick Penner
Cody Donovan
25
Sig strikes landed
38
59
Sig strikes attempted
67
40
Total strikes landed
47
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
88s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Nick Penner
"The Quiet Assassin"
11-4
Career record
Height
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
Blue corner
Cody Donovan
"Donnybrook"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32