Back to UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson
Prelims1 Welterweight

Ben Alloway vs Manuel Rodriguez

UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson ·Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Ben Alloway
Manuel Rodriguez
59% 41%
Why
32
Age
Δ 4y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Alloway: 16 sig / 0 TD · Rodriguez: 4 sig / 3 TD
Ben Alloway
Manuel Rodriguez
39
Sig strikes landed
37
81
Sig strikes attempted
77
56
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
144s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Ben Alloway

"Blanco"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner

Manuel Rodriguez

"Chalate"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28