Prelims1
Welterweight
Mike Pierce vs Seth Baczynski
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson
·Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mike Pierce
Seth Baczynski
66%
34%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
18-7
Career record
Δ 12 pp
21-14
W2
Current streak
W4
8
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pierce: 16 sig / 6 TD ·
Baczynski: 34 sig / 0 TD
Mike Pierce
Seth Baczynski
32
Sig strikes landed
33
72
Sig strikes attempted
83
46
Total strikes landed
50
2.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
206s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Mike Pierce
18-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
Blue corner
W4
Seth Baczynski
"The Polish Pistola"
21-14
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—