Back to UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson
Prelims1 Featherweight

Chad Mendes vs Yaotzin Meza

UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson ·Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Chad Mendes
Yaotzin Meza
68% 32%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 5"
71"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
W1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mendes: 10 sig / 0 TD · Meza: 2 sig / 0 TD
Chad Mendes
Yaotzin Meza
31
Sig strikes landed
30
60
Sig strikes attempted
71
49
Total strikes landed
46
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
226s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Chad Mendes

"Money"
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
Blue corner

Yaotzin Meza

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32