Back to UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson
Main Middleweight

Hector Lombard vs Rousimar Palhares

UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson ·Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Hector Lombard
Rousimar Palhares
81% 19%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
34-11-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
19-9
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lombard: 24 sig / 0 TD · Palhares: 6 sig / 0 TD
Hector Lombard
Rousimar Palhares
19
Sig strikes landed
28
54
Sig strikes attempted
58
39
Total strikes landed
44
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
177s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
31%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Hector Lombard

34-11-1 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
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Blue corner
L1

Rousimar Palhares

"Toquinho"
19-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
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W UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
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W UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
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W UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
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L UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
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