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Colin Fletcher vs Norman Parke

UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson ·Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Colin Fletcher
Norman Parke
27% 73%
Why
30
Age
Δ 4y
26

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Fletcher: 56 sig / 0 TD · Parke: 42 sig / 6 TD
Colin Fletcher
Norman Parke
29
Sig strikes landed
37
69
Sig strikes attempted
72
44
Total strikes landed
53
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
104s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Colin Fletcher

"The Freakshow"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner

Norman Parke

"Stormin'"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26