Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
TJ Grant
Evan Dunham
76%
24%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
22-5
Career record
Δ 16 pp
19-9-1
W2
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Grant: 164 sig / 0 TD ·
Dunham: 160 sig / 3 TD
TJ Grant
Evan Dunham
47
Sig strikes landed
39
104
Sig strikes attempted
105
68
Total strikes landed
64
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.9
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
178s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
TJ Grant
22-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Evan Dunham
19-9-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—