Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Sean Pierson
Lance Benoist
49%
51%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
36
Age
Δ 12y
24
15-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
7-3
W1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pierson: 74 sig / 0 TD ·
Benoist: 91 sig / 0 TD
Sean Pierson
Lance Benoist
44
Sig strikes landed
40
98
Sig strikes attempted
103
64
Total strikes landed
61
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.8
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
202s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sean Pierson
"The Punisher"
15-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
L
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Lance Benoist
7-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—