Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mitch Gagnon
Walel Watson
59%
41%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 10"
75"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
12-6
Career record
Δ 11 pp
14-11
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Gagnon: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Watson: 1 sig / 0 TD
Mitch Gagnon
Walel Watson
27
Sig strikes landed
36
85
Sig strikes attempted
78
39
Total strikes landed
47
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.8
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
200s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
40%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mitch Gagnon
12-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
Blue corner
L2
Walel Watson
"The Gazelle"
14-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
L
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—