Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Seth Baczynski
Simeon Thoresen
33%
67%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
79"
31
Age
Δ 2y
28
21-14
Career record
Δ 12 pp
18-6-1
W3
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Baczynski: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Thoresen: 17 sig / 0 TD
Seth Baczynski
Simeon Thoresen
26
Sig strikes landed
35
70
Sig strikes attempted
78
41
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.9
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
112s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Seth Baczynski
"The Polish Pistola"
21-14
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
Blue corner
W1
Simeon Thoresen
"The Grin"
18-6-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—