Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Kyle Noke
Charlie Brenneman
59%
41%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
32
Age
Δ 1y
32
22-11-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
19-9
L2
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Noke: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Brenneman: 0 sig / 0 TD
Kyle Noke
Charlie Brenneman
19
Sig strikes landed
14
36
Sig strikes attempted
22
39
Total strikes landed
39
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.2
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
108s
Control time
285s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Kyle Noke
22-11-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
Blue corner
L1
Charlie Brenneman
"The Spaniard"
19-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—