Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Matthew Riddle
John Maguire
43%
57%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 7"
69"
27
Age
Δ 3y
30
8-3
Career record
Δ 2 pp
24-10
W1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Riddle: 45 sig / 1 TD ·
Maguire: 37 sig / 0 TD
Matthew Riddle
John Maguire
24
Sig strikes landed
30
90
Sig strikes attempted
68
49
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
2.3
2.7
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
161s
Control time
220s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Matthew Riddle
"Deep Waters"
8-3
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
L1
John Maguire
"The One"
24-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—