Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Antonio Carvalho
Rodrigo Damm
67%
33%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
16-6
Career record
Δ 12 pp
14-9
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Carvalho: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
Damm: 50 sig / 0 TD
Antonio Carvalho
Rodrigo Damm
19
Sig strikes landed
28
59
Sig strikes attempted
58
34
Total strikes landed
35
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
118s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
46%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Antonio Carvalho
"Pato"
16-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
L
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
Blue corner
W1
Rodrigo Damm
14-9
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—