Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Ivan Menjivar
Azamat Gashimov
61%
39%
Why
30
Age
Δ 8y
23
L1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Menjivar: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Gashimov: 4 sig / 1 TD
Ivan Menjivar
Azamat Gashimov
41
Sig strikes landed
35
93
Sig strikes attempted
78
58
Total strikes landed
38
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
107s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ivan Menjivar
"The Pride of El Salvador"
25-13
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
Blue corner
Azamat Gashimov
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23