Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Patrick Cote
Alessio Sakara
65%
35%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
23-12
Career record
Δ 4 pp
19-12
L3
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
DQ · Round 1
Cote: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Sakara: 24 sig / 0 TD
Patrick Cote
Alessio Sakara
28
Sig strikes landed
33
64
Sig strikes attempted
73
45
Total strikes landed
46
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
99s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Patrick Cote
"The Predator"
23-12
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
L2
Alessio Sakara
"Legionarius"
19-12
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—