Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mark Hominick
Pablo Garza
58%
42%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 5"
73"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
20-13
Career record
Δ 10 pp
12-5
L3
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hominick: 39 sig / 1 TD ·
Garza: 83 sig / 2 TD
Mark Hominick
Pablo Garza
34
Sig strikes landed
40
67
Sig strikes attempted
86
52
Total strikes landed
54
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
128s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Mark Hominick
"The Machine"
20-13
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
L
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
Blue corner
L2
Pablo Garza
"The Scarecrow"
12-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
L
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—