Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Steven Siler
Darren Elkins
48%
52%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
26
Age
Δ 3y
28
30-16
Career record
Δ 6 pp
30-12
W3
Current streak
W3
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Siler: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Elkins: 44 sig / 6 TD
Steven Siler
Darren Elkins
40
Sig strikes landed
31
96
Sig strikes attempted
116
56
Total strikes landed
51
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
6.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
62s
Control time
213s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Steven Siler
"Super"
30-16
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
W3
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
30-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—